Forecast Models Outline

 

Weather Forecasts and Why the Models Matter

Mel Kent

Northern Virginia Community College

 

 

 

Author Note

            This paper is being submitted on XXX, for Professor Bartlett’s ITE 119 Section 001W.

 

Outline

I.                    Introduction

A.    Some forecasting models absolutely butcher the prediction of East Coast snowstorms.

B.     Tech and big data work together to bring us up-to-date weather forecasting models, but not all models are created equal. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EURO) does a significantly better job predicting major East Coast winter storms than the Global Forecast System (GFS).

II.                 GFS Model has a bad habit of overplaying the jet stream and underplaying low pressure systems, as well as misreading temperature anomalies in the lower atmosphere, VS high-computing Euro sees them better.

A.    Previous winter storms inaccuracy in forecasting.

1. Winter Storm Jonas in 2016. ( https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2344542552/17B86BFB666D4738PQ/3?accountid=12902 )

2.Winter Storm Petra in 2019 ( https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2186333243/C934203043DE4B90PQ/5?accountid=12902 ).

B.     December 2020 storm comparison. ( https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2469557523/2A21E00E02AE44DCPQ/4?accountid=12902 )

C.     GFS Ensemble, transition to Euro ensemble.

III.              The EURO model runs an ensemble of different models and averages them together. Takes more computing power, only run twice a day. (https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2287029851/93790D1A4FAC4C3CPQ/1?accountid=12902 )

A.    The European community charges up to $250k for all of their info, so they have more $$ for research and development.

1. “Initialization” determining the current weather conditions used as a starting point to feed the models.

2. Euro “The King” UKMET “The Queen.”

B.     200 Gigabit HDR InfiniBand selected to accelerate their new supercomputer.

C.     Supercomputers and tech updates to increase accuracy in weather forecasting. Numerical predicting activities. Supercomputer designed to maximize energy efficiency. ( https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2336854995/CF21D572405D4411PQ/3?accountid=12902 )

IV.              GFS needs to be retired, to be replaced by the FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere dynamical core”. (https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2180372588/3457E68275DC400DPQ/13?accountid=12902 )

A.    FV3 has been tested through 3 summers, hurricane seasons, and winters. Mets so far are not fans, as it is just about as inaccurate as the GFS. Is it worth it to grow with the system?

1. Grow and adapt with the new program, learn to see the biases and work around them.

2. Agreement between NOAA and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, nonprofit, federally funded) for more collaboration between forecasters and researchers to help improve models.

B.     Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) – a cloud-based clearinghouse for researchers developing new now and emerging model tech. Crowdsourcing with tech to find better solutions. (https://search-proquest-com.eznvcc.vccs.edu/globalnews/docview/2280205829/93790D1A4FAC4C3CPQ/2?accountid=12902 )

C.     Possibility for GFS to overcome negative bias through this new program.

V.                Conclusion

A.    GFS is shaky on catching weather events because low computing power. Euro has higher computer power, making it more accurate. Euro and GFS are both being updated, possibility for GFS to regain some of it’s positive notoriety. Tech innovations and data sharing, weather through EPIC or otherwise, will help improve forecasting capabilities.

B.     In the future, we may have better access to higher quality prediction software, which will make our lives on the densely populated East Coast easier to plan during winter. Better computers = better models = better us!